Another attempt to predict the future of the OS from Google .. Will the OS market leader switch to closed source?
Google released Android N, but without the ability to distribute updates, this software is almost useless. Despite the fact that Android M (6.0) was released almost a year ago, at the moment it is present on 24% of the total Android – devices. This distribution pattern is quite common on the platform without any further updates. At the same time, iOS 9 is available on more than 90% of devices and will soon be replaced by iOS 10. There is a serious problem: any innovations by Google in Android brought in to compete with iOS, Windows or Chinese manufacturers, will fully cover the desired user base in only four years. I believe that such a scenario of updates nullifies innovation, there will be manufacturers who can copy the new functions and features and bring them to market faster than Google will.
A great example of this is the Now on Tap functionality, which allows you to search by context from any app on your device. I have always considered this solution to be ingenious: it will help Google to receive 100% of information about the network activity of users, which is almost double the current figure. As a result, Google will better understand users and offer advertising offers more precisely, which in turn will affect the increase in the cost of advertising, and hence the growth of revenue and profits. Unfortunately, the service requires low-level changes in AOSP, so Now on Tap will only work on devices with version Android 6 and higher. At the moment, only a quarter of devices in the Google ecosystem provide access to this service, I remind you that a year has passed. The main reason that the revenue from Google services by Android is two times less than the same services by iOS, is this implementation of innovations in combination with system fragmentation Android, which provides a far from better user experience compared to iOS.
The only way for Google to solve this problem is to have full control over Android, which will result in the migration of Android RunTime (ART) from AOSP to Google Moblie Services (GMS). This step will turn the 'open' part Android into a base component, and the actual functionality of the device will be controlled by the proprietary GMS. It will also address the issue of patching and fragmentation, but could potentially outrage the open source community and draw even more regulatory attention.
Google has long adhered to its open source software policy and the potential developer backlash in the event of a closed source transition will be harsh. In Marsmallow, Google was forced to use standard Oracle libraries for ART, thereby depriving the company of control over the schedule for updates of this component. Google simply cannot allow this, and when announcing its own version Android, the company can point the finger at Oracle as the reason for this step. Among other things, AOSP will remain 'open', but will lose its relevance, becoming just a basic kernel, and not a full-fledged OS. You can already see signs of the changes described: Google has released its own “hardware”, which the company speaks of as “more meaningful” and in which they are “more confident.” The Nexus series of devices is doomed to disappear, it will be replaced by devices developed and branded by Google in cooperation with the manufacturer (in the case of the Pixel – HTC), which, however, is not indicated in the device itself.
For Android fork creators like Alibaba, Xiaomi, Tencent, Cyanogen and others, this means they will have to go the same way, leading to a number of proprietary OSes on base of one core. This will greatly simplify the life of developers, because it will become much easier to develop applications for devices based on Android from Google, while development for other OS versions will become more complicated. I believe this will force device manufacturers to switch to Google's software, and they will have no options until the EU decides to step in and force Google to change the current state of affairs with licensing the right to install Google Play on devices.
The process goes on as usual, over the past three years the importance of GMS has increased, but I think that within the framework of Google I / O 2017, this step will become more obvious. Google does not have many options to choose from, ultimately, the company's prosperity will depend on profit growth from Android amid a slow fade-out iOS. Better to annoy developers a little than lose $ 100 billion in value.
Original material by Richard Winsor
Let's just say an original opinion. The possibility of 'closing' the sources Android has been talked about for a long time, however, such ideas have intensified after the presentation of new branded Google products. From the outside it may actually seem that such innovations are not far off, such a step, in principle, is quite logical for Google. There are a lot of 'but' around the potential 'closure' of the code: yes, Google can take such a step in order to please the possible establishment as an independent manufacturer, but what will third-party vendors say? Will they find another alternative for their devices? Developers are unlikely to be happy with such changes, judging by the rumors, Google has so far limited itself to the transition to the use of the open library OpenJDK in ART, to which Oracle cannot have any complaints, but this step also forces developers to make more efforts to bring their applications to an adequate form . Piss off developers? I'm not sure about the effectiveness of such a measure, but in any case, Google will decide everything at its own level.
Well, the classic idea that closed code will help overcome all problems Android, of course, could not but appear in such material. From the standpoint of an ordinary user, freedom of choice is closer to me than being one of the first to get access to the latest functions. If for some reason I need a 'better user experience', then there is always the opportunity to buy a flagship, yes the same Pixel, but the very fact of having this feature is worth a lot. I prefer to choose devices for my scenarios myself, such freedom is captivating. Hopefully Google has an idea on how to make Android more profitable without sacrificing manufacturers, developers, and users.